Conned Again Watson Cautionary Tales of Logic Math and Probability Bruce 2001

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 · 251 ratings  · 32 reviews

Start your review of Conned Again, Watson: Cautionary Tales Of Logic, Math, And Probability

Conned Again, Watson: Cautionary Tales of Logic, Math, and Probability, is a fun attempt to teach statistical awareness through Sherlock Holmes stories.

If nothing else, Colin Bruce should be applauded for his ability to craft tight, concise stories that excellently illustrate whatever aspect of statistics he is trying to teach, perfectly paced and accessible to the layman. Each chapter, around two dozen pages in length, poses some mystery involving statistical sampling, or game theory, or indepe

Conned Again, Watson: Cautionary Tales of Logic, Math, and Probability, is a fun attempt to teach statistical awareness through Sherlock Holmes stories.

If nothing else, Colin Bruce should be applauded for his ability to craft tight, concise stories that excellently illustrate whatever aspect of statistics he is trying to teach, perfectly paced and accessible to the layman. Each chapter, around two dozen pages in length, poses some mystery involving statistical sampling, or game theory, or independent probabilities, and is often explained in two different ways by Watson and Holmes. The language is clear and accessible, without relying on mathematical formulae, and I blazed through the whole book in no time at all.

It didn't really resonate with me on any emotional level – Bruce has a pretty good ear for the Victorian style of prose, but most of the vignettes come across as a little dry and passionless. You're not going to pass AP Stats with this, either. But they do a good job of providing basic explanations for why busses seem to bunch up, why you shouldn't gamble in casinos, and all the million little ways you can be deceived with statistics and graphs.

Very neatly done.

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Oct 07, 2019 Philonous rated it really liked it

Well-written and entertaining. While the presented fallacies should be well-known and the stories seem at times a bit contrived, they are fun to read and demonstrate their points vividly and effectively. Would recommend this book to anyone who has even a passing interest in rationality or statistics. Had a hard time putting it away.

Very enjoyable read.

Mar 22, 2019 Paul Weiss rated it really liked it

You might want to re-think that last bet you made!

Talk about niche marketing! Conned Again, Watson is a pretty difficult book to categorize. Perhaps the sub-title does a fair job of letting a potential reader know what it's all about - "cautionary tales of logic, math and probability".

It's not a pastiche in the typical sense. What author Bruce does is simply use the characters of Watson and Holmes and some very light-hearted mysteries to probe typical ignorance and common misunderstandings about

You might want to re-think that last bet you made!

Talk about niche marketing! Conned Again, Watson is a pretty difficult book to categorize. Perhaps the sub-title does a fair job of letting a potential reader know what it's all about - "cautionary tales of logic, math and probability".

It's not a pastiche in the typical sense. What author Bruce does is simply use the characters of Watson and Holmes and some very light-hearted mysteries to probe typical ignorance and common misunderstandings about probabilities, statistics, game theory and so on. Bayesian conditional probabilities, the drunkard's walk, probability distributions, the cab driver fallacy, gambling fallacies and other topics of interest in decision theory are touched upon and explained in a fashion that even the most math-phobic reader could hardly fail to understand.

That said, I expect this is the kind of book that would appeal only to that specific niche market I referred to earlier - past readers of the Sherlock Holmes canon who also had an interest in popular mathematics. That interest needn't be deep or at a university level but Conned Again, Watson is unlikely to succeed on the basis of an interest in Sherlock Holmes alone.

Recommended.

Paul Weiss

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This is an entertaining book of Sherlock Holmes and Watson tales, all of which demonstrate flaws of understanding due to logic or probability errors. Many of the puzzles they are presented with defy normal understanding, but are explicated by Holmes to a very credulous Watson.

Jun 08, 2021 Erika marked it as lost-interest-dnf-not-gonna-read-it  · review of another edition

Like the author explains, this is not a Sherlock Holmes pastiche. It's a mathematics book TOLD with the characters of Holmes and Watson.
I did have fun reading the maths, but I feel unsatisfied 'cause what I like about Holmes/Watson story is their friendship, and not maths.

This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers. To view it, click here. Bruce - le trappole della logica 8 - metti logica, matematica, Sherlock e Baker Street. Agitare bene e divertirsi

Oct 22, 2007 Russell rated it really liked it

This is a book that blends the same sort of material found in "What the Numbers Say", "Innumeracy" and "How to Think Straight".

Here's a quick review from Amazon:

"Some people who think they hate math are lucky to learn that they actually just can't abide its often dry, abstract presentation. Physicist Colin Bruce turns math teaching on its head by using conflict, drama, and familiar characters to bring probability and game theory to vivid life in Conned Again, Watson! Cautionary Tales of Logic, M

This is a book that blends the same sort of material found in "What the Numbers Say", "Innumeracy" and "How to Think Straight".

Here's a quick review from Amazon:

"Some people who think they hate math are lucky to learn that they actually just can't abide its often dry, abstract presentation. Physicist Colin Bruce turns math teaching on its head by using conflict, drama, and familiar characters to bring probability and game theory to vivid life in Conned Again, Watson! Cautionary Tales of Logic, Math, and Probability. Using short stories crafted in the style of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, he lets Sherlock Holmes guide Watson and his clients through elementary mathematical reasoning. This kind of thinking is growing more and more important as poll numbers, economic indicators, and scientific data find their way into the mainstream, and Bruce's gambit pays off handsomely for the reader. Delving into such arcana as normal distribution, Bayesian logic, and risk taking, the stories never dry up, even when presenting tables or graphs. Holmes's quick wit, Watson's patience, and their various friends' and clients' dubious decisions unite both to entertain and to illuminate tough but important problems. Even the cleverest numerophile will probably still find a nugget or two of hidden knowledge in the book, or at least a few new ways to explain statistical concepts to friends and students. The rest of us can relax, enjoy the tales, and come away a little bit tougher to con. --Rob Lightner"

It was a fun book. No, really!

I loved the Sherlock Holmes stories when younger, and the author does a fairly good job of imitating the two famous characters and the feel for story style.

If you liked the aforementioned books, this will fit right in. I recommend it.

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"Sherlock Holmes e le trappole della logica", titolo originale: "Conned Again, Watson", di Colin Bruce, traduzione di Luca Scarlini e Lorenzo Stefano Borgotallo, Raffaello Cortina editore, ISBN: 978-88-7078-712-2.

La traduzione del titolo in italiano risulta un po' fuorviante perché questo bel libro è più incentrato sulle applicazioni del calcolo delle probabilità rispetto a quanto faccia effettivamente riferimento alla sola applicazione della logica deduttiva.

L'Autore si serve della famosa copi

"Sherlock Holmes e le trappole della logica", titolo originale: "Conned Again, Watson", di Colin Bruce, traduzione di Luca Scarlini e Lorenzo Stefano Borgotallo, Raffaello Cortina editore, ISBN: 978-88-7078-712-2.

La traduzione del titolo in italiano risulta un po' fuorviante perché questo bel libro è più incentrato sulle applicazioni del calcolo delle probabilità rispetto a quanto faccia effettivamente riferimento alla sola applicazione della logica deduttiva.

L'Autore si serve della famosa copia costituita da Holmes e Watson per illustrare una serie di micro enigmi fra essi concatenate, con l'intenzione di svelarci alcune applicazioni ingegnose del calcolo combinatorio, ma anche per mettere in guardia il lettore riguardo alla scorretta applicazione delle informazioni che possono derivare da un'osservazione superficiale e da una non corretta valutazione dei fattori di scala.

La morale è che il ragionamento scientifico è uno strumento potente del pensiero, ma anch'esso non è privo di insidie e la sua cattiva applicazione può portare altrettanto lontano dalla verità quanto la superstizione, l'istinto, oppure la banale ignoranza.

Leggero, scorrevole e educativo!

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Feb 09, 2017 Jen rated it really liked it

3.5 stars. My not understanding probability/statistics/etc. too well aside, the math problems sometimes felt a bit out-of-place in the mysteries, and the historical figures and references inserted into the text felt a bit forced (the author even mentions at the end that a few of them were not even from the time period where the stories took place).

Dec 12, 2011 Carly rated it it was amazing

**edited 01/30/14

Holmes fans will welcome this extension of Holmes' powers into the probabilistic and game-theoretic domain. Sherlock Holmes enters the domain of probability and game theory with panache, tackling well-loved favorites such as the gambler's fallacy, the birthday paradox, the Monty Hall problem, Prisoner's Dilemma, independent versus dependent events, and martingales. Holmes fits well into the paradigm--after all, isn't Holmes' well-loved saying, "Once you have eliminated the impos

**edited 01/30/14

Holmes fans will welcome this extension of Holmes' powers into the probabilistic and game-theoretic domain. Sherlock Holmes enters the domain of probability and game theory with panache, tackling well-loved favorites such as the gambler's fallacy, the birthday paradox, the Monty Hall problem, Prisoner's Dilemma, independent versus dependent events, and martingales. Holmes fits well into the paradigm--after all, isn't Holmes' well-loved saying, "Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth", just another way of stating conditional probability?

...
Due to my disapproval of GR's new and highly subjective review deletion policy, I am no longer posting full reviews here.

The rest of this review can be found on Booklikes.

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Jul 23, 2016 Gary Holt rated it it was amazing

I've been reading this book to our boys (9 and 12), and this is I think the first time they've ever been able to understand why math might be interesting. (Sadly, thanks to our elementary school curriculum from time immemorial, elementary school math is nothing more than arithmetic.)

I stumbled on this book years ago, and I loved it because it was such a beautiful presentation of some rather interesting math--especially for somebody who loved Sherlock Holmes. On a whim, I decided to see if our bo

I've been reading this book to our boys (9 and 12), and this is I think the first time they've ever been able to understand why math might be interesting. (Sadly, thanks to our elementary school curriculum from time immemorial, elementary school math is nothing more than arithmetic.)

I stumbled on this book years ago, and I loved it because it was such a beautiful presentation of some rather interesting math--especially for somebody who loved Sherlock Holmes. On a whim, I decided to see if our boys could learn anything from it. I was very surprised to find that my boys seemed to like it, and keep asking for more--they liked it better than the original Sherlock Holmes stories. Apparently this book is good not only for people who like a beautiful presentation of things they already know, but also for people who don't know the stuff yet.

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(3.5 stars) This book uses Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson in a series of illustrative cases to explain several statistical and mathematical concepts that show the errors in some "common sense" approaches. The cases cover topics as diverse as the shortest line (why you always seem to be in the longest line), the birthday paradox (how likely is it that there is a shared birthday in a room), random number generation (how bad people are at generating truly random numbers), throwing good money after (3.5 stars) This book uses Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson in a series of illustrative cases to explain several statistical and mathematical concepts that show the errors in some "common sense" approaches. The cases cover topics as diverse as the shortest line (why you always seem to be in the longest line), the birthday paradox (how likely is it that there is a shared birthday in a room), random number generation (how bad people are at generating truly random numbers), throwing good money after bad, and the prize behind one of three closed doors (the Monte Hall problem). Some game theory is also thrown in, as well as some well known gambling cons. The lessons are well integrated in the stories and I found the explanations to be thorough without getting pulled down into extreme detail or minutiae. ...more

Aug 26, 2014 Ethan Aegon rated it did not like it

Très décevant. Les problématiques mathématiques sont bien décrites et expliquées quoique souvent connues. C'est plus dans le style, la plume que le bat blesse. Les histoires sont très très loin d'avoir la qualité des nouvelles de Conan Doyle. De plus à part le nom des deux compères, l'époque et les lieux, on ne retrouve pas grand chose de nos personnages favoris complètement dénaturés. L'univers, l'ambiance et le style de l'auteur n'est pas respecté. Je vois donc dans ce livre, outre l'objectif Très décevant. Les problématiques mathématiques sont bien décrites et expliquées quoique souvent connues. C'est plus dans le style, la plume que le bat blesse. Les histoires sont très très loin d'avoir la qualité des nouvelles de Conan Doyle. De plus à part le nom des deux compères, l'époque et les lieux, on ne retrouve pas grand chose de nos personnages favoris complètement dénaturés. L'univers, l'ambiance et le style de l'auteur n'est pas respecté. Je vois donc dans ce livre, outre l'objectif pédagogique louable, une tentative purement mercantile d'associer un nom célèbre (Sherlock Holmes) sans le respect (ou le travail littéraire) qui lui est dû dans le but, cette fois moins louable d'écouler des exemplaires. Je n'ai pas fini le livre. ...more

Oct 03, 2011 Franco Arda rated it really liked it

Twelve short Sherlock Holmes stories challanging logic, probability, statistic, game theory, more or less relevant to daily life. The authors approach of telling the story seen through Holmes and Watson is brilliant (incl. the dialogue between the two). Some stories are a bit simple and boring while others were quite amazing. Example Chapter 7 illustrates the error of assuming that a well-defined ordering retlation must also define a unique hierarchy. In higher mathematics it is quite possible t Twelve short Sherlock Holmes stories challanging logic, probability, statistic, game theory, more or less relevant to daily life. The authors approach of telling the story seen through Holmes and Watson is brilliant (incl. the dialogue between the two). Some stories are a bit simple and boring while others were quite amazing. Example Chapter 7 illustrates the error of assuming that a well-defined ordering retlation must also define a unique hierarchy. In higher mathematics it is quite possible to have x greater than y, y greater than z, and yet z greater than x! Last but not least, the afterword is extremely useful where the author sheds more light on each chapter.
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While the book offers a great introduction to many of the more popular problems in probability, statistics, and game theory, the narrative is still seriously lacking. I will concede that creating stories in which you are simultaneously attempting to explain a complicated mathematical principle is a challenge. Furthermore his explanations of these problems is actually very good and I believe that it has the ability to educate a wide audience regardless of mathematical acumen. Still the narrative While the book offers a great introduction to many of the more popular problems in probability, statistics, and game theory, the narrative is still seriously lacking. I will concede that creating stories in which you are simultaneously attempting to explain a complicated mathematical principle is a challenge. Furthermore his explanations of these problems is actually very good and I believe that it has the ability to educate a wide audience regardless of mathematical acumen. Still the narrative is cheesy and is awkwardly made to fit the mathematical problems Bruce discusses. ...more

kitap, mantık ve olasılık hikayelerini yaşanmış ve ya o tarihten sonra yaşanacak aynı vakitte bir kısım uyarlama hikaleri üzerinde anlatılmaya çalışılmış. Olasılık konunda ve ya dersinde bu konuyu uzak duranlara tavsiye ederim,çünkü ben de lise 2 den beri bu konudan uzak duruyordum. Lakin matematik kültür kitaplarını okumaya başlayınca bir başka gelmeye başladı. Artık matematik üzerinde bilgiler edindiğim vakit inanılmaz keyif alıyorum. Bu kitaptan önce Sihirli Matematik Hikayelerini Okumanızı t kitap, mantık ve olasılık hikayelerini yaşanmış ve ya o tarihten sonra yaşanacak aynı vakitte bir kısım uyarlama hikaleri üzerinde anlatılmaya çalışılmış. Olasılık konunda ve ya dersinde bu konuyu uzak duranlara tavsiye ederim,çünkü ben de lise 2 den beri bu konudan uzak duruyordum. Lakin matematik kültür kitaplarını okumaya başlayınca bir başka gelmeye başladı. Artık matematik üzerinde bilgiler edindiğim vakit inanılmaz keyif alıyorum. Bu kitaptan önce Sihirli Matematik Hikayelerini Okumanızı tansiye ederim. ...more

Sep 05, 2014 Rena Sherwood rated it it was amazing

This is one of those titles that you read and think, "Ugh." Fortunately the book is better than the title or subtitle suggests. So good I think I'm going to buy a copy instead of just taking it out of the library again and again. Although technically it's a non-fiction book, it teaches basic concepts of logic, math and statistics in a series of stories taught by Sherlock Holmes and Doctor Watson.

This is one of those titles that you read and think, "Ugh." Fortunately the book is better than the title or subtitle suggests. So good I think I'm going to buy a copy instead of just taking it out of the library again and again. Although technically it's a non-fiction book, it teaches basic concepts of logic, math and statistics in a series of stories taught by Sherlock Holmes and Doctor Watson.

...more

Feb 15, 2012 C.O. Bonham rated it really liked it

This book was most Elementary. In twelve original Sherlock Holmes stories author Colin Bruce explains simple probability theory without Algibra. This book is great for anyone who has ever seen the TV show Numb3rs or just likes Sherlock Holmes. Though Bruce's writting style does not quite mimic Sir Doyle's it is still very readable and not at all the worst attempt I've read. So don't let a fear of math stop you from reading this book. Word problem have never been so entertaining. This book was most Elementary. In twelve original Sherlock Holmes stories author Colin Bruce explains simple probability theory without Algibra. This book is great for anyone who has ever seen the TV show Numb3rs or just likes Sherlock Holmes. Though Bruce's writting style does not quite mimic Sir Doyle's it is still very readable and not at all the worst attempt I've read. So don't let a fear of math stop you from reading this book. Word problem have never been so entertaining. ...more

Mar 26, 2008 Laleh rated it really liked it

I love this book. It's a collection of short stories featuring Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson, who are charming and lovely as ever. Each story is pieced together to make you think, and teaches an appreciation for uncommon math in our society. I want my future kids to read this one, because I know they'll go outside and look at problem-solving in new and exciting ways. I love this book. It's a collection of short stories featuring Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson, who are charming and lovely as ever. Each story is pieced together to make you think, and teaches an appreciation for uncommon math in our society. I want my future kids to read this one, because I know they'll go outside and look at problem-solving in new and exciting ways. ...more

Sherlock Holmes teaches lessons in probability and statistics. A relatively painless series of lessons couched as mysteries, though Holmes purists and sticklers for historical or geographical accuracy (how, exactly, does Baker Street intersect with the London Docklands?) may be irked. Just ignore the quibbles and you'll learn why what you think is probable, probably isn't. Sherlock Holmes teaches lessons in probability and statistics. A relatively painless series of lessons couched as mysteries, though Holmes purists and sticklers for historical or geographical accuracy (how, exactly, does Baker Street intersect with the London Docklands?) may be irked. Just ignore the quibbles and you'll learn why what you think is probable, probably isn't. ...more

Apr 15, 2010 The Tick rated it really liked it

The author did a nice job explaining the mathematical principles set out in each story, but some of the characters rubbed me the wrong way. Holmes's attitude toward Watson wasn't very nice, and I don't understand why Watson would put up with someone who's always insulting his intelligence. Is Holmes like this in Doyle's stories, too? The author did a nice job explaining the mathematical principles set out in each story, but some of the characters rubbed me the wrong way. Holmes's attitude toward Watson wasn't very nice, and I don't understand why Watson would put up with someone who's always insulting his intelligence. Is Holmes like this in Doyle's stories, too? ...more

Math! Mystery! Love!

Okay, love has very little to do with it; I just really love math and mystery, so this book, while I already knew all fo the concepts tackled by Bruce, was perfect plane reading for me.

I had never really noticed how sad of a character Watson is, though. But that's neither here nor there.

Math! Mystery! Love!

Okay, love has very little to do with it; I just really love math and mystery, so this book, while I already knew all fo the concepts tackled by Bruce, was perfect plane reading for me.

I had never really noticed how sad of a character Watson is, though. But that's neither here nor there.

...more

Sep 08, 2009 Pablo Meier rated it really liked it

Cute. A little tiresome, and some cases a little contrived (Sherlock Holmes being a master statistician/probability guru is a bit much, and Watson is always a buffoon), but if there's any way to learn this stuff, this is it. It has the air of a mystery novel in that you know some major fallacy will arise, and you try and anticipate it. Good fun ^_^
Cute. A little tiresome, and some cases a little contrived (Sherlock Holmes being a master statistician/probability guru is a bit much, and Watson is always a buffoon), but if there's any way to learn this stuff, this is it. It has the air of a mystery novel in that you know some major fallacy will arise, and you try and anticipate it. Good fun ^_^
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Jul 04, 2011 Adil rated it really liked it

An interesting spin on Sherlock Holmes and Watson. Holmes and Watson take on cases and solve them by applying common sense and probability rules. This was an entertaining read and it tended to emphasize its mathematical lessons very gently. The author is also a very competent mystery writer.

Aug 21, 2009 Dad rated it it was ok

Packaging interesting bits of math and game theory in the late Victorian cloak of Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson. Not an obvious combination.
If you thought the steam-driven mechanical spider in "Wild, Wild West" was awesome, you'll like this book.
Packaging interesting bits of math and game theory in the late Victorian cloak of Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson. Not an obvious combination.
If you thought the steam-driven mechanical spider in "Wild, Wild West" was awesome, you'll like this book.
...more

Jun 07, 2010 Rissie rated it really liked it

Cleverly written stories involving Sherlock Holmes and Watson in which the mysteries are solved using mathematics, logic and probability.

All of the mathematical concepts are clearly explained and very accessible to the average reader.

Sep 28, 2013 Bethany rated it really liked it

Entertaining. The author is not Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, but I enjoyed it. I would recommend it for high school students interested in puzzles and/or mathematics.

intrigantissimo. Come determinate discipline (prime fra tutte la statistica e la teoria dei giochi) siano fondamentalmente cotrointuitive

Let's just say this helped me raise money. . . Let's just say this helped me raise money. . . ...more

Apr 17, 2008 Senshisteph rated it it was amazing

Statistics and probability always made my brain glaze over, til I read this book!
Brilliant :)

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